Tim Graf (TG): This is Street Signals, a weekly conversation about markets and macro brought to you by State Street Global Markets, the Markets and Financing Division of State Street. I'm your host, Tim Graf, European Head of Macro Strategy. Each week, we bring you the latest insights and thought leadership from our award-winning suite of research, as well as the current thinking from our strategists, our traders, our business leaders, and a wide array of external experts in the markets. If you listen to us and like what you're hearing, please do subscribe, leave us a good review, get in touch with us, it all helps us improve what we hope to bring to you. And with that, here's what's on our minds this week.

This week, we kick off the year-end process with the first in a series of three podcasts that will look ahead to the new year and look back at the highlights of 2024. And we're starting it off with a bang, with our outlook for 2025. Today, we are also publishing the Macro Strategy Team's written year-ahead piece. And just like we did last year, this week's podcast features most of the authors of that document, each of whom is giving an audio summary of their contribution to the team's year-ahead view set.

Now for those who haven't read one of our year-ahead pieces or who missed last year's podcast version of it, we do ours a bit differently. Instead of trying to come up with a consensus view derived from the thoughts of 15 very intelligent, very opinionated, very well-read individuals, we instead ask each team member to write up a single trade idea that they think will outperform in the coming 12 months. The mix of ideas we get is a fascinating exercise from which a few consensus thoughts organically emerge while also containing some contrarian thinking.

And where this year's publication is concerned, it's hard to remember a more cohesive set of ideas. They break down along three broad categories. First, we have a block of trades that fall into the “if it ain't broke, don't fix it” camp. Each of which also has a dose of US outperformance within them. The trend is your friend with these views, whether it's looking for continued gains in US equities, the dollar, or the prospect of higher US rates relative to the rest of the world.

And closely related to the first block, we also have a second set of trades that play upon some of the direct and indirect effects of the election of Donald Trump as the United States president with the backing of a Republican Congress. These ideas range from the intuitive, think long dollars against trade-sensitive emerging markets (EM) currencies, as well as lower EM rates, to more nuanced relative value plays within currency blocks.

Finally, year ahead pieces are often vehicles for thinking about where valuations are most attractive over the long term, and this year is no exception. We conclude the podcast with four ideas that play up relative valuation, three of which feature Japan, where fundamentals and policy differentials combined with a very attractive fair value story give rise to a few unique trades.

But let's start with those trades which continue trends in place over recent months, or in fact, as our first guest points out, even longer than that.

We start with Maria Veitmane, our head of Equity Strategy, who has a trade that will be familiar to anyone who has spoken to her about markets in recent years.

Marija Veitmane: I make no secret of really liking US stocks. So much so that once Bloomberg commentators jokingly suggested I should get honorary US citizenship for always championing them. US stocks have been the key part of equity portfolio recommendation for the last five years, and it is the third time I recommend US stocks outperforming relative to the rest of the world in this document.

Some people might say that it's a lazy, unimaginative recommendation to do the same trade three times in a row. However, with every week, month, year, even the outperformance, this trade becomes harder and harder, and we already had about 15 years of outperformance. So I still see three good reasons for US stocks outperformance to continue.

The first one is structural. We see much higher margins, much higher profitability in US., and that really stems from the things like deeper capital markets, easier access to capital, much less strict labor regulation, less bureaucracy. So that's really a structural support for higher margins, higher profitability in US. Cyclically, we also still continue to talk about US exceptionalism. The US economy is indeed the strongest right now.

And finally, we find very little alternative to US stocks now. Europe is teetering on the edge of recession. Japanese stocks really need weaker yen for outperformance, which is difficult right now. Emerging market, commodity-centric countries, they need China to recover. Again, stimulus are taking a lot longer than expected, and we struggle to see strong pick-up and profitability.

So structurally, cyclically, and lack of alternatives, those three things really push us towards US stocks. But obviously, all those things are well-known and potentially reflected in the valuations. They also reflected in investor positioning. So US., according to our data, and anywhere you look, really, US stocks are crowded, no question about it.

However, what I find really interesting, institutional investors have increased allocation to US stocks this year, suggesting they still believe in this trade. And so do I. So really, nothing is going to stop US stocks. Go US.

[music]

TG: Right, the Street Signals legal team is telling me that music clips need to be kept to a minimum, so let's move on.

US stocks have certainly not run out of lovers, and the dominant position of the largest cap stocks within US indices is why Cayla Seder on our team in Boston runs with that theme this year.

Cayla Seder: Okay, my trade idea for 2025 is to go underweight small caps versus large caps. I know the market is just itching for small caps to outperform, but I don't think that's going to happen in 2025. Consistent small cap outperformance likely needs three things.

First, they need lower interest rates rather quickly. The interest rate burden is significantly heavier for small caps versus large caps. And even though rates are expected to fall, they might not fall enough to compensate for weak fundamentals. Also, a higher neutral rate relative to pre-COVID is bad news for small caps relative to large caps.

Secondly, we need growth to support fundamental improvement. The challenge here, of course, is that if we do get more growth, we may not get as many cuts. And so what that means is that the pace of growth would need to counterbalance the interest rate burden and would need to support small cap fundamentals more than large caps. That's a pretty tall order.

And then finally, valuations would need to become more attractive for small caps. Forward PEs actually signal small caps are trading at a higher multiple now than large caps. And this is happening at a time when the spread between small and large fundamentals is the widest since COVID and the financial crisis. And so at the end of the day, large caps really offer you more bang for your buck. I think it makes more sense to stick with large over small heading into next year.

TG: Dan Gerard works with Kayla on the team in Boston, and he takes her preference for large caps over small caps. And drills things down to an industry level expression of this for his year ahead view.

Dan Gerard: So my trade idea for 2025 is long US software. There are macro reasons, policy reasons and fundamental reasons why US software should be a great performer in the year to come. Multiple expansion has been the driver everywhere in market, but tech dominates.

Why? Because tech has multiple expansion and earnings growth. So when thinking of the risk reward for a year ahead trade, we should allow for the fact that the conditions driving multiples will begin to fade and earnings growth will become much more of a driver. Investors are going to concentrate on areas where we will see the best earnings and some insulation from a trade war. Why gamble with the idea of re-acceleration in growth and in smaller companies or cyclicals in this world?

Unlike the trade deficit in goods space, the US is running a growing services surplus, especially in tech services. Sure, this surplus could be at risk for retaliatory tariffs. There's still a lot of unknown on trade. But much of software companies' revenue is in the electronic transmission and services which fall under the WTO moratorium on tariffs that cannot be dutyed. This agreement massively helps the US. While this agreement will expire in 2026, it's unlikely to face any pressure in the current year, just given how much the US benefits from it.

Fundamentally, analysts continue to strongly revise their forward estimates higher, especially relative to the market. But perhaps most importantly, software has much less positioning risk than its tech peers. Unlike for both semis and tech hardware, institutional investors hold software positioning only a bit above its benchmark range. That gives lots of room for people to build positions. Given the risks and rewards for the balance of 2025, software is in a great spot to achieve strong relative returns in the coming year.

TG: We're going to stick with the theme of trades that have worked pretty well in recent months that we think have potential to keep going. But we're going to move from equities to rates.

Hope Allard makes her Street Signals debut with a view on US rates and where they might head relative to other parts of the world.

Hope Allard: My year ahead trade idea is going long guilds and short treasuries. This trade reflects the economic divergence between the UK and the US that's already under way and likely to become more apparent as the two economies adjust to new monetary and fiscal policy dynamics.

Both the US and the UK are expected to ease by about 75 basis points over the next year despite meaningful differences in macro fundamentals. Fiscal policy risks to that pricing are also becoming more apparent after Chancellor Reeve's UK budget announcement. Weaker PMI prints following the announcement and indications that employers expect to have to cut jobs in light of higher labor costs point to cracks in confidence already emerging among UK businesses. While the Bank of England's growth outlook for 2025 improved in light of new fiscal policy, private sector pressures could challenge those forecasts and lead to more BOE cuts than anticipated.

Meanwhile, in the US, stronger-than-expected data has already pushed the Fed further from its year-end growth and inflation targets over the past few months. And over the next year, potential upward pressure on wage growth arising from tighter immigration policy and fiscal challenges like changes to Treasury's current approach of financing the budget deficit at the short end of the curve could exert additional upward pressure on US yields.

So while both sides of the trade are subject to several known unknowns, it looks like there's room for guilts to outperform relative to Treasuries, as markets recalibrate based on the economic divergence that these dynamics could accelerate in the coming year.

TG: We're going to stay with US rates and an idea from Marvin Low, also on the team in Boston. Now, Marvin is one of our road warriors, and he is down in Brazil this week. So rather than try and make him record from a client meeting or perhaps the beach, Marv, let me summarize it for you.

Marv likes reloading on US curve steepeners, focused particularly on seeing the US 5s30s spread steepen from current levels around 30 basis points towards something that is more than norm during Fed easing cycles, with his target around 175 basis points.

How do we get there?

Well, we could get a US growth scare or some financial market instability that pushes the Fed to cut rates faster. But that seems less likely, at least short run. In Marv's view, it's likely to be led by higher rates in the long end, mainly coming from the need to price additional term premium to account for expansionary fiscal policy and rising net debt issuance next year. Also, institutional behavior supports the trade. Real money investors right now are avoiding duration to a pretty aggressive degree. Finally, recent strength in banking valuations suggest future curve steepness, given the rise in bank stocks has come in a flattening curve environment, when you would usually think a steeper curve would be in play. So the closure of that gap could also help the trade if the curve catches up and re-steepens. So thanks for those thoughts, Marv, and safe travels home.

We now come to my idea for the new year, buying dollars against a basket of the Chinese renminbi, the Canadian dollar, and the euro.

This is really a transition idea between those first two blocks of trades I described in the introduction in that it derives support from a lot of the US and dollar positive factors that would be in place no matter who was running the country, while also being specifically constructed to favor the dollar against some of its largest trade partners to reflect the prospects for a more protectionist political reality. And quite simply, I suspect the prospect of higher trade tension will create much more volatility in the new year than we have seen this year.

If you look at the coverage of trade wars in our media stats indicators, they've spiked and I think are likely to get to the high levels that we saw during Donald Trump's first term. As that's happening, the positive correlation to dollar performance is getting stronger.

Now, this is already in the price in a lot of currencies, the Mexican peso most notably. And there are other currencies, like the yen, that are already so cheap against the dollar and have fundamental and policy divergence elements backing them. I don't really want to go after those currencies.

But if we use one year implied volatility as a proxy for bilateral trade tension, you would look at vols in Eurodollar, USDCAD, and even USDCNH and think, what's the big deal? Implied volatilities in these pairs are much closer to the lows of the last 10 years than they are the highs.

And even though long dollars is a consensus risk as captured by our FX holdings metric, the current overweight is only half the size of the position seen earlier this year and a third of the size of the overweight when the dollar index hit its highest levels of the last 20 years in 2022.

And if that's not enough, the trade also pays you carry about 1.8 percent annualized. You usually have to pay for exposure to higher volatility. I suspect with this trade, you get to earn something instead.

[music]

That musical interlude allowed me to break things up a bit. You're probably getting sick of my voice. It was also a way to sneak in a tribute to a musical hero of mine who we lost not too long ago. If you know, you know, as the kids say.

I also need to stand in for Yuting Shao from our team in Hong Kong. Unfortunately, there were audio issues in her recording, which is a real shame, as it was a very insightful way to think about selling the Chinese renminbi, similar to my idea. But doing so in a more effective way against the members of China's CFETS basket, rather than just against the dollar.

Yuting actually liked this idea last year, and it didn't quite go as planned. The renminbi did weaken against the dollar, but Beijing prioritized stability of the basket valuation, and it didn't move as much against the other currencies in that basket.

This year, though, with further trade tension looming, authorities may need a broader, weaker currency to maintain export growth which can all help to offset the sluggishness that's still apparent in domestic demand. Also, weakness may be needed to offset some of the tariff-related pressures, even if those effects may be hard to counter completely.

So moving on now, we have thoughts from Ning Sun, our LATAM specialist, for how to think about some of these trade concerns in EM rates.

Ning Sun: My trade idea for 2025 is to long two-year M-bonos with an FX hedge. Trump's policy proposals on tariffs and immigration next year at least will increase investor uncertainty. And that is likely to translate into lower growth for Mexico and higher difficulty for the administration to deliver fiscal consolidation.

On the fiscal side, the administration is already struggling to come up with a plan to credibly lower the fiscal spending post the election year when the administration significantly increase fiscal spending. So this means that as the growth continues to slow, the room from the fiscal side is going to be pretty constrained. It's going to be very limited to offset those headwinds on the growth front. So the central bank would have to take over a bigger share of the burden, and deliver a faster and bigger easing cycle to shore up the economy.

And market pricing also shows that from a real interest rate perspective, there is ample room for the central bank to cut interest rates. The one year one year Mexican forward rates also shows that the gap between this rate and the long term mutual rate is also pretty large. As we think the market is underpricing the risk of slower growth, we think market is also underpricing the risk of faster easing cycle.

As a result, we like long two-year bond and we paired the trade with the FX hedges because we think next year is still likely to be a strong dollar year.

TG: Carlin on the team in London follows up this EM rates view with an EM currency play for a more uncertain higher volatility environment.

Carlin: 2024 was a glitch in that for most of the year, EM volatility was lower than that of developed markets FX volatility. Since September, however, that has reversed. Let's not forget that historically, higher EM FX vol is the norm. A toxic mixture of high US yields, global recession fears and China disappointment have come together to produce a return to higher volatility.

As we enter 2025, carry to vol is on its last legs as a trading strategy. The carry side is not even, with the exception of quirky Turkey, all that much anymore. The best proxy for the return of risk is through USDZAR. A high vol liquid risk proxy at the best of times. Next year will be chock a block with risk, either through geopolitics or the endless round of hopes and disappointments that is China or as a result of Trump's unpredictability.

Tariffs may come swiftly, they may be deferred. They may be focused on one region or all. One thing we know is that uncertainty is likely to prevail.
As for the domestic side in South Africa, the SARB's catch up on weak inflation implies further monetary policy easing. However, the rand is rarely a simple domestic story. As protection, long dollar rand is the everything hedge.

TG: While it seems like a lot of the risks from a Trump presidency feed through into emerging markets, let's not forget about developed markets Lee Ferridge, head of macro strategy for the Americas, has thoughts on how to play some of these risks in G10FX.

Lee Ferridge: Now, my trade idea for 2025 is to sell the Australian dollar against the US dollar. Basic reasoning here is I don't believe the market is accurately pricing the risks to the Australian economy next year through its expectations for rate cuts from the RBA.

What are the risks to the Australian economy? They center around China and the prospects of substantial trade tariffs coming from the new Trump administration towards China. Over 40 percent of Australian exports go to China. They constitute about 9 percent of GDP. That's much larger than any other developed market.
And yet, the market is still only pricing about 50 basis points of cuts from the RBA next year. After the RBA were unchanged this year, we have more than that priced in for the Fed next year, and they've already eased by 75 basis points.

So when I look at the relative risks, I look at growth expectations for next year, the US is now above those of Australia. The first time that's happened since Bloomberg started collecting forecasts for 2025 in February of last year. That puts Australian growth below trend, and yet US is going to grow above trend.

The Aussie has performed very well this year. It's only within the G10, it's the third best performing currency on the total return basis behind only Sterling and the dollar itself. I don't believe it can perform as well next year, and then we have to price more in for the RBA. And if the Trump administration's follow-throughs on those trade tariff threats, then I think that means we're going to see a lot more activity from the RBA and a much weaker Australian dollar.

TG: Rounding out this block of trades, expressions of the first and second order effects of the Trump presidency, we have Noel Dixon also on the Boston team. Noel is thinking commodity currency relative value for the year ahead.

Noel Dixon: My year ahead trade is to go short NZDCAD. Now, 2024 has been the year of the election, and as we know, elections have consequences. Trump winning the White House and taking control of both the chambers of the US Congress has put the rest of the world on alert to say the least. Canada has recently got caught in the crosshairs of US politics, with Trump quickly declaring a 25 percent across the board tariff on all goods coming across the Canadian border into the US.

To be fair, Trump also put 25 percent tariff on Mexico and an additional 10 percent tariff on China, which happens to be New Zealand's number one trading partner. Now, whether this is an opening salvo to a much broader tariff policy remains to be seen. For now, it appears that this is negotiation tactic. In that sense, Canada actually has a lot of leverage to negotiate. For example, the US currently imports over 50 percent of its petrol products, including 60 percent of oil from Canada.

You juxtapose that against China, which is New Zealand's number one trading partner. Their economy is actually quite vulnerable. It does seem that their trade negotiations are going to be a lot more complicated. So, we're in a position now where Canada, a lot of bad news has been priced in just based on its issues with the domestic economy. And then they have this situation where they have a strong hand from a negotiation standpoint.

So, when you combine that with the fact that they're the third most underweight currency among the G10, the only place to go, I think, for the CAD currency is nowhere but up. That's contrary to Kiwi, which is very closely tied to China. The weakness in their economy is a lot more broad-based. So, to me, the Kiwi seems like the perfect currency to go short against a long CAD position for the year ahead.

TG: We move now to what I see as part three of this podcast, a third big theme that emerges from the mix of our ideas. The search for undervalued opportunities across assets and currencies.

And picking up from the relative commodity play in developed markets that Noel highlighted, Dwyfor Evans, our head of Macro Strategy in Asia, has thoughts on where value lies in EMFX.

Dwyfor Evans (DE): My year ahead idea is to go long Brazil relative to Chile in the currency space. So long real and short Chilean peso.

Fiscal plans, as we well know, have weighed on Brazil in the latter part of 2024. The real is weaker. Fears over spending has pushed the rate expectations significantly higher in a monetary policy reassessment for Brazil. And while we expect fiscal policy uncertainty to persist into 2025, there are a number of factors here that, as we go into the new year, should be more supportive for Brazil.

Firstly, the higher rates environment. So we see relatively contained inflation for now in Brazil. Monetary policy is likely to move significantly higher, to the extent that real interest rates in Brazil are likely to reach around 8 percent to 10 percent. Up until now, growth has actually been able to withstand higher or tighter monetary policy in Brazil.

So we don't necessarily think that higher rates in Brazil will have an adverse effect on the local economy. But it will do, of course. It will have a supportive factor in terms of the yield pickup for Brazil, particularly relative to an economy like Chile, where the real interest rate is effectively close to zero. So an 8 percent to 10 percent real interest rates in Brazil, potentially zero real interest rates in Chile, there is a significant pickup in terms of yield between the two currencies.

There is also a much larger reserve stock in Brazil, which has been previously deployed to support the currency. And recall, go back a few years, the Chilean authorities unsuccessfully supported their own currency, given a very low level of FX reserves stock. And added to this as well, the Brazilian real is among the most undervalued of the emerging market currencies that we track at around 10 percent to 15 percent, whether on a real effective exchange rate basis or on the price stats PPP metrics.

So we think fiscal weakness in Brazil is largely discounted by now. There are significant real interest rates, and a significant real interest advantage for Brazil relative to Chile, and valuations is also in your favor as well. So long Brazilian real and short Chilean peso for my idea for 2025.

TG: While Dwyfor is looking for value in EM, it's a theme with plenty of opportunities in developed markets as well, and value features heavily in our last three trades, each of which is focused on Japan in some way.

Mr. Risk, Fred Goodwin, kicks us off with a trade that may be familiar to anyone who listened to him on this podcast last year.

Fred Goodwin: Mr. Risk’s idea to short dollar yen can be summed up in the following way, if it personally don't succeed, try, try again. Last year, Mr. Risk told readers to short dollar yen. It did not work over the course of the year, but there were members of hope, including a 13 percent decline or the peak of 161.69 to a trough of 140.62. Nevertheless, over the course of the year, it was epic fail.

Many of the same arguments apply, including valuation and outlook for lower treasury yields and some cyclical analysis. On valuation, it may not be the greatest timing tool. Nevertheless, it is useful to note that yen has an enormous medium-term upside potential. Its REER value is 40 percent below its long-term average, making it the cheapest of the major currency. Meanwhile, dollar yen is the most pricey.

Second point, recession risk. During recessions, economic uncertainty increases. The VIX spikes, credit spreads blowout, and typically, the yen appreciates. At present, just 26 percent of economists surveyed by the Wall Street Journal expect a recession in the next 12 months. The State Street recession is likely indicator, however, is at 93.8 percent, so pretty dead certain of a recession. During recessions, 10-year yields typically decline, and for the past 20 years, dollar yen and 10-year yields have been highly correlated, which implies a lower dollar yen. In short, the long end benefits of the US recession is the big surprise of 2025.

Finally, we'll talk about cycle analysis. So the dollar yen cycle, if we take a look at the real yen, it has a 98-month cycle, which often is not precise, but the window for appreciation in this cycle is passed to and has arrived. So with that, the recommendation for Mr. Risk is to be short dollar yen.

TG: Michael Metcalfe, our global head of macro strategy, also likes the yen, but he wants to avoid anything to do with the US dollar, which is fair enough. We've covered that a lot elsewhere, I think. Here's his idea.

Michael Metcalfe: So my idea, first and foremost, I suppose, is to avoid dollar exposure. This is probably the third or fourth year we've done our year ahead piece like this, and we've never seen such a consensus, particularly on the dollar, I would add. And I think I'm a little uncertain about the inflation impact of tariffs in particular. They might be more recessionary, might be more of an impact for margins. And that left me looking for a compelling, locally driven opportunity elsewhere.

And that got me back to Japan. PriceStats and the official data have revealed a structural shift in inflation for some time. But importantly, that's now supported by wage growth and a shift in BOJ rhetoric. That means a move towards neutral rates. We've been talking about it for a long time. Neutral rates in Japan look like they're above 1 percent, but it's 2025 where we think that's finally going to happen.

The contrast, meanwhile, in Europe is that expectations are very low, growth is very low, there are big structural headwinds. On top of that, you've got trade war risks, and politics looks like it's going to hamstring fiscal stimulus, and maybe even at its own risk. So I think that means the ECB, in contrast to BOJ pushing rates up through neutral, the ECB may need to get actually rates below neutral.

And this divergence, it sounds somewhat outlandish, but there is, I think, a potential for Japanese and European short-term rates to cross over in the next couple of years. If you look at where the currency alignment is at the moment, our price at PPP metrics suggest that the yen is still 20% undervalued against the euro. Yes, long yen is a bit of a crowded trade, but there's still a massive valuation premium there for the yen relative to the euro. And I think given the relative cyclicals and given the relative direction rates, I think Japan and the yen in particular is a nice trade idea against the euro over the next year or maybe even longer.

TG: We stay in Japan for our final idea this year from Ben Luk on our team in Hong Kong. Ben has an interesting take on why the stronger yen that Fred and Michael have talked about may not have its usual effects on Japanese stocks in the new year.

BJ: My 2025 trade is simply Japanese equities will be the best equity market in 2025. For the longest time ever, trading Japan was always about the currency. But this relationship has really started to diverge this year. I think positioning helped explain part of the reason.

But as we actually go into the end of 2024, real money equity positioning is back to neutral. Foreign inflows have really turned supportive and earnings momentum remains to be very, very positive. There are two risks that I think have been overblown, at least from market's perspective.

First is that US imports from Japan is actually much less, at only 4.6% relative to Mexico, Canada, and China at well above 13%. From Japan's perspective as well, they have relied much less on the US and actually rely more on China and the rest of Asia, at least over the last few years.

Last but not least, we also see currency sensitivity as being much less of a factor given the surge of outward foreign direct investments from Japanese corporates. And if we combine that also with Japanese consumers' real wages actually hitting a decade high, that should actually help boost the overall strong consumption story for Japan.

Last but not least, the second concern is obviously on Bank of Japan rate normalization. But I don't think this is going to be a big issue, given that Japanese corporates are much less leverage comparing to its global counterparts. So there's really one market that actually has full support from earnings, positioning, flows, less reliance on the US as well as a good domestic consumption story. I believe Japan will actually shine in 2025.

TG: And there we have it. 15 ideas that take us from the US to Japan via the UK., Europe, Mexico, Australia, and South Africa, to name but a few places. While these trades can be bucketed into three common themes, and you do get a sense of a pretty strong core view emerging from our team, we think there are enough nuances to each view that if we were a restaurant, the menu would be more a la carte rather than prefix.

So there's hopefully something to interest everyone. And likewise, as we wind down for the end of this year, we hope in this gift giving season, every one of our listeners and readers get something they want, all as part of a safe and joyous holiday season.

We're not quite done with the podcast though. We'll be back next week with a look back at some of the themes of 2024 that stood out, as well as a further look at some of the events that might move markets in 2025.

Then we'll finish up in two weeks with our annual review of the top book and media recommendations from the team this year. Always a favorite of ours. Until then, thanks for listening. We'll speak to you soon.

Thanks for listening to this week's edition of Street Signals from the research team at State Street Global Markets. This podcast and all of our research can be found at our web portal Insights. There you'll be able to find all of our latest thinking on macroeconomics and markets, where we leverage our deep experience in research on investor behavior, inflation, risk, and media sentiment, all of which goes into building an award-winning strategy product. If you're a client of State Street, hit us up there at globalmarkets.statestreet.com.

And again, if you like what you've heard, subscribe and leave a review. We'll see you next time.